The worst — and the most common — mistake made in warfare is to underestimate one’s enemy. Persia did so with ancient Athens and Sparta, we did it with Vietnam, and Russia did it this very year with Ukraine.

Short of war, there is one and only one real threat China faces: depopulation. By the end of this century, it is estimated that China will have less than 500M people, and a disproportionately-high segment of that will be the elderly. America — thanks largely to our still-robust immigration tradition, is estimated to have slightly over 500M at that time, and our population will be significantly younger.

I don’t see any way out of that trap — and China knows about it, too.

But if China goes to war over Taiwan — which looks likely — they will find out just how vulnerable they are to a boycott by the EU and NATO, including America. China’s invasion would be successful — I harbor no fantasies that we or anyone else can stop them short of using nukes (which we won’t do). But China’s *occupation* of Taiwan, in addition an effectively worldwide embargo, might well break China’s current government.

Lastly, China’s navy is quite able to sail with and protect the oilers transiting from the Persian Gulf to Shenzhen and the other ports…and they would be much less patient with pirates than we have been.