1 min readMar 2, 2020
The 1918 H1N1 influenza had a mortality rate of ‘only’ five percent…yet it still killed 50M people out of a global population of 1B.
The key isn’t the mortality rate, but the virulence. Do the math: if just one-eighth of the world’s 8B population were infected with the coronavirus (which seems to be a very conservative figure given its thus-far documented virulence), COVID-19’s current 2% mortality rate equals 20M deaths.
Do not panic, but more importantly, don’t allow yourself to become complacent by articles that tell you what you want to hear.