Aellé, I sincerely appreciate criticism, and I am honestly grateful when people prove me wrong. The reason I point that out is to show that my response to you is made not to preserve my own (often misplaced) pride, but is meant to convey an earnest desire for accuracy.

I am grateful when people use strong references, and of course the Wolfram Alpha references you used are quite trustworthy. The problem is that you did not post any statistical estimates past 2020, whereas my article deals with dates as far away as 2050 and 2100.

By limiting your source data to 2020 and earlier, you missed the effect of the aging population of China and how by 2050, fully one-third of their population will be aged 60 or over. Women of that age generally don't bear children, and younger women at that time will be torn between work and caring for their elders. Will they want to add children to that mix if they don't need to? Many won't.

You also missed the long-term effects not only of their low birth rate (which appears to be significantly lower than the 1.624 that you posted), but also the lasting effects of their One-Child Policy which has - through selective abortion of female fetuses - resulted in China being the only developed nation with more men than women. The fact that China is now allowing more children per family (3, IIRC) will take many years to overcome the demographic *and cultural* effects of societal approval of abortion of female fetuses in hopes of a male heir later.

If you still want to debate the matter, then I encourage you to not only research references showing long-term demographic trends but also read up on cultural trends, and how culture has changed through 35 years of the One Child Policy, during which time China progressed from an economic backwater where women were expected to stay home "barefoot and pregnant" to to its current status an economic powerhouse wherein women are welcomed to make their own careers and are no longer forced to rely on men to be the breadwinners.